Domestic market outperforms overseas market for base metals; alumina falls over 1%; iron ore and polysilicon rise over 1%; ferrous metals series generally decline [SMM midday review]

SMM July 16 News:

Metal Market:

As of midday close, domestic base metals mostly rose, with SHFE nickel up 0.78%, SHFE aluminum up 0.29%, SHFE copper up 0.13%, while SHFE lead fell 0.71%, SHFE zinc dropped 0.29%, and SHFE tin gained 0.3%.

Additionally, main-contract aluminum casting futures rose 0.25%, while main-contract alumina fell 1.08%. Lithium carbonate edged down, and silicon metal declined 0.57%. Polysilicon rose 1.26%.

Ferrous metals series mostly fell, with iron ore up 1.37%, while rebar and HRC both fell less than 0.2%. Stainless steel edged lower. Coking coal and coke: coking coal fell 0.38%, coke dropped 0.79%.

Overseas metals mostly fell as of 11:43, with LME aluminum, LME nickel, and LME copper all down slightly, each within 0.1%. LME zinc rose 0.22%, LME tin gained 0.26%, and LME lead fell 0.38%.

Precious metals: COMEX gold rose 0.11%, COMEX silver gained 0.08% as of 11:43. Domestically, SHFE gold fell 0.34%, and SHFE silver dropped 0.47%.

As of midday close, the most-traded European container shipping futures contract rose 4.69% to 1,650 points.

Partial futures midday quotes as of 11:43 on July 16:

》July 16 SMM Metal Spot Prices

Spot & Fundamentals

Zinc: Today's mainstream transaction prices for 0# zinc concentrated at 22,035-22,130 yuan/mt, with Shuangyan trading at 22,125-22,220 yuan/mt. 1# zinc mainly traded at 21,965-22,060 yuan/mt. Morning market offered premiums of 10-30 yuan/mt against SMM average price, with fewer quotes against futures... 》Click for details

Macro Front

Domestic Updates:

[NBS: China's Q2 GDP Reaches 34,177.8 Billion Yuan] The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) announced today (July 16) that China's Q2 GDP reached 34,177.8 billion yuan based on preliminary calculations, up 5.2% YoY. By sector, primary industry added value reached 1,945.9 billion yuan (+3.8% YoY), secondary industry 12,714.7 billion yuan (+4.8% YoY), and tertiary industry 19,517.2 billion yuan (+5.7% YoY).

[PBOC Conducts 444.6 Billion Yuan Net Injection via Open Market Operations] The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted 520.1 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations at 1.40% interest rate, unchanged from previous operations. With 75.5 billion yuan maturing today, the net injection reached 444.6 billion yuan.

►On July 16, the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar in the interbank foreign exchange market was set at 7.1526 yuan per US dollar.

US dollar:

As of 11:43, the US dollar index fell by 0.04% to 98.59. The market was digesting the rise in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June and awaiting further clarity on US President Trump's trade policies. The increase in US consumer prices in June hit a five-month high, with costs rising for some goods, indicating that tariffs were beginning to impact inflation and might lead the US Fed to maintain a wait-and-see attitude until September. After the data release, Trump stated that consumer prices were low and that the US Fed should now cut interest rates. Dallas Fed President Logan said that, in the face of upward pressure from tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, the US Fed might need to keep interest rates unchanged for a while to ensure inflation remains low. The market's focus has now shifted to the US Producer Price Index (PPI) to be released at 20:30 tonight for more clues.

Data:

Today, data such as the UK's June CPI year-on-year rate, UK's June core CPI year-on-year rate, UK's June retail price index year-on-year rate, China's June total electricity consumption - monthly (released irregularly from the 16th to the 20th), the Eurozone's May seasonally adjusted trade balance, the US's June PPI year-on-year rate, the US's June core PPI year-on-year rate, the US's June industrial output month-on-month rate, the US's June capacity utilization rate, the US's June manufacturing output month-on-month rate, the US's June manufacturing capacity utilization rate, and the US's June industrial output year-on-year rate - seasonally adjusted, will be released.

In addition, attention should be paid to speeches by Fed Governor Barr at a conference hosted by the US Fed; 2025 FOMC voter and Boston Fed President Collins; Bank of England Governor Bailey; 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan on the US economy; 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Hamack; Fed Governor Barr on financial regulation at the Brookings Institution; and NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang at a media briefing in Beijing.

Crude oil:

Both crude oil futures rose slightly. As of 11:43, US crude oil rose by 0.42%, and Brent crude oil rose by 0.23%. Improved economic prospects will keep demand stable in major oil-consuming countries, supporting oil prices.

Oil prices have been fluctuating within a relatively narrow range, with signs of stable demand from increased summer travel in the Northern Hemisphere on one hand, and market concerns that US tariffs on trading partners will slow economic growth and fuel consumption on the other. However, major oil-producing countries noted that economic growth will improve in H2. In its monthly report released on Tuesday, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) forecast that global economic performance will improve in H2, boosting oil demand prospects. The report stated that India, China, and Brazil have outperformed expectations so far, while the US and Eurozone continue to recover from last year's rebound.

Data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed increases in US crude, distillate, and gasoline inventories last week. For the week ended July 11, crude inventories rose by 839,000 barrels. Gasoline inventories increased by 1.93 million barrels, and distillate inventories grew by 828,000 barrels. Analysts had expected a 600,000-barrel draw in US crude inventories, a 200,000-barrel build in distillate stocks, and a 1 million-barrel decline in gasoline inventories. (Comprehensive report by Wenhua)

Spot market overview:

►Buyers and sellers diverge; spot premiums/discounts weaken [SMM North China Spot Copper]Z35/>►

Shanghai zinc: Downstream sentiment remains bearish; trading activity muted [SMM Midday Review]

►Z38/>Ningbo zinc: Traders continue liquidation at lower prices; downstream just-in-time purchases [SMM Midday Review]

►Tianjin zinc: Futures pull back; poor downstream restocking sentiment [SMM Midday Review]

Other metal spot midday reviews will be updated shortly - please refresh for updates.